The research demonstrates that seventeen financial indexes are very effective with one or two years before the stock company is known as st and the net asset reward ratio is the best effective . three modes can predict financial crisis more correctly . with four years basic financial data the error differentiation ratio is in twenty - seven percent 研究结果表明： ( 1 )在财务危机发生前2年或1年，有17个财务指标的信息实效性较强，其中净资产报酬率的判别成功率较高； ( 2 )三种模型均能在财务危机发生前做出相对准确的预警，在财务危机发生前4年的误判率在27以内； ( 3 )相对同一信息集而言， logistic预测模型的误判率最低，财务危机发生前1年的误判率仅为7 . 36 。
